Iranian intrigue update...

http://www.debka.com/article/21881/

By securing Assad and its alliance, Iran gains upper hand for nuclear talks 
DEBKAfile Special Report March 31, 2012, 9:30 AM (GMT+02:00)

Tags:  Barack Obama   Iran nuclear   Bashar Assad   Ayatollah Ali Khamenei  Saudi king Abdullah   Hillary Clinton   Israel 

Hillary Clinton chats with Saudi King Abdullah

Turkish prime minister Tayyip Erdogan’s talks with Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Thursday, March 29 were closed to the press, but a statement published on Khamenei's official website said he told Erdoğan that Iran strongly opposes any foreign intervention in Syria's conflict and will defend Damascus so that it can continue to be a center of “resistance” against Israel.
Twelve hours later, Iran’s Lebanese stooge, Hizballah’s Hassan Nasrallah, interrupted his Friday night sermon to declare triumphantly: “The die in Syria is cast. Talk of military intervention is over. There is no more talk about arming the opposition or about toppling the regime!”
Saturday, the Syrian Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad Makdisi announced, “The battle to topple the state is over, and the battle to solidify stability and move towards a renewed Syria has begun.”

Bashar Assad’s victory over the 12-month uprising to unseat him is unquestioned. With massive Iranian and Russian intelligence and military support, the Syrian army was able to push the rebels out of the cities – barring isolated pockets in Homs and Idlib – and drive them to the rural periphery, where they can’t hold up for long.
One observer, describing their situation as “undergunned and overwhelmed,” reported that Syria's rebels have to negotiate for hours for every box of bullets they haul across the border for their war against Assad. “And their frustration is starting to show.”
Tehran, Damascus and Hizballah are crowing over their success in derailing the Obama administration’s two-pronged policy for halting a nuclear Iran. It hinged on Tehran’s isolation by unraveling its alliance with Damascus and Hizballah and economic pressure through tough financial sanctions and an oil embargo.
Iran has come out of the woods firmly in position at the head of its bloc, now cemented by Assad’s defeat of his foes. Tehran’s hand is much strengthened for the coming nuclear talks between Iran and the Six Powers due to start in two weeks. Washington will have to pay for any Iranian concessions by starting the process of unwinding sanctions.
Responding to this situation during his visit to Tehran, March 28-29, Erdogan played both ends against the middle: He made the gesture to Obama whom he had just met in Seoul of cutting down Turkey’s purchases of Iranian oil by one fifth. At the same time, he signed lucrative deals with Iran for expanding the volume of their trade to $35 billion over the coming years.
Certain that sooner or later, Washington would slot Turkey onto the list of nations exempted from implementing the oil embargo against Iran, the Turkish prime minister could afford to defy US financial sanctions against the Islamic Republic.And Tehran could afford to ignore as harmless the White House announcement Friday that the US would “go forward with sanctions on foreign banks continue to buy oil from Iran and further isolate Iran’s central bank.”

Khamenei listened carefully to the message Erdogan presented him from the US president. But he did not send back an answer. He evidently meant to leave Obama on tenterhooks until the nuclear talks begin next month.
The failure of Obama’s linked strategies for Iran and Syria resounded in the background of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s Persian Gulf mission Friday and Saturday, described officially as aiming to bring Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states aboard a US-led front against Iran and Syria.

In Riyadh, Friday, she heard King Abdullah place responsibility for the Syrian debacle squarely at the door of the Obama administration for spurning the Saudi intervention plan to establis opposition sanctuaries in Syria under air force and ground forces' protection.
On Saturday, more recriminations echoed between the lines of the announcement of Clinton’s meeting with the foreign ministers of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council). G

GCC Secretary Ahmed Al-Kaabi said: The meeting at the GCC secretariat will focus on the Gulf’s position on Syria and the role of the US and other allies. He added, “In fact, Saudi Arabia, along with fellow Gulf nation Qatar, has called for a timely approach, including arming the rebels and carving out a safe haven inside Syria from where the opposition can operate.”

Iran’s supreme leader gave the United States, Saudi Arabia and the GCC them his answer Thursday, when he pledged on his website strong opposition to any foreign intervention in Syria's conflict and the defense of Damascus, so that it can continue to be the center of “resistance” against Israel.
It is clearly too late to reverse the tide in Damascus: Should the US have a sudden change of heart and accept the Saudi plan to intervene in Syria and arm the anti-Assad rebellion, that route would be cut off by Tehran calling off the nuclear talks and so robbing Obama’s Iran policy of its ultimate goal.
The second Friends of Syria Clinton will be leading in Istanbul Sunday, April 1 has likewise been overtaken by events. Iran, Damascus and Hizballah have left the Syrian opposition and their adversaries’ tactics behind them in the dust.

This ought to be a resounding lesson for the Israeli circles who argue that it is up to America to deal with a nuclear Iran, a much-quoted minority chorus led by the ex-Mossad chief Meir Dagan, the moderate ministers Benny Begin and Dan Meridor and the newly-elected head of the opposition Kadima party, Shaul Mofaz. They would all like to shrug off Israel’s responsibility for preempting a nuclear Iran and pass the buck to the United States.Washington’s management of the Syrian crisis and its non-military approach to a nuclear Iran has left Assad in the saddle and enhanced Iran’s prospects of hanging onto its nuclear weapons capacity, while escalating anti-Israel “resistance” from Damascus. 

Assad and Khamenei felt no urgency to go through with the large-scale pro-Palestinian spectacle they had planned for the Israeli-Arab Earth Day Friday. They now have bigger fish to fry.

The convoy of buses standing by in Damascus to carry an international legion of pro-Palestinian sympathizers flown in from Tehran to the Golan border with Israel was therefore sent away, and the HIzballah-led rally scheduled to storm the Israeli border was relocated to central Lebanon.

A compilation of recent articles from Mark Grant - In focus .....Italy , Spain , Portugal and Greece - looking behind the curtain at the ugly truths being hidden.....

Mark Grant Explains The Farce, The Hustle, And The Scam

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/30/2012 12:13 -0400

• European Central Bank
 
• European Union
 
• Gross Domestic Product
 
• Italy
 
• NADA
• National Debt
 
• Portugal
 
• Sovereign Debt

Submitted by Mark Grant, author of Out of the Box and Onto Wall Street,

“All propaganda has to be popularand has to accommodate itself to the comprehension of the least intelligent ofthose whom it seeks to reach.”

                                                         -He that must not be named

When considering the financial condition of each and every country in the European Union there are certain facts that are left out and left out on purpose. It makes no difference if the methodology is right or wrong but what is not counted is every bit as important as what is counted. In my opinion, the structural deformity of the European Union is, in itself, one of the main reasons that any attempt at a fiscal or economic fix never seems to work. If the problem is not correctly identified then how can a solution for the problem be correctly conceived and then implemented and the answer is that it cannot. For each and every nation in Europe here is what is NOT counted as part of their sovereign debt or included in ANY debt to GDP ratios:

• Contingent Liabilities
• • Derivatives
  • Sovereign Guaranteed Debt of any Corporation
  • Sovereign Guaranteed Bank Debt
  • Sovereign Guaranteed Regional or Local Debt
  • EU Liabilities that Accrue to each Nation
  • ECB Liabilities that Accrue to each Nation
  • Stabilization Funds Liabilities that Accrue to each Nation
  Consequently the difference betweenwhat we are told are the debts of a country and what are the actual debts of acountry is the difference between night and day, light and dark, fantasy andreality. The fact that we are told time and time again that the Italian debt toGDP ratio is 120.1% changes nothing. It is an inaccurate figure, a distortionof the truth, and because it is repeated and repeated and repeated in theheadlines does not make it so. The worse problem may be that with enough repetitionthat those that manufacture the propaganda begin to believe it themselves andthen act upon the nonsense that they have so judiciously concocted. 
  ITALY
  • Italian Official GDP                                                      $1.900trillion
  
  
  ITALY’S NATIONAL DEBT
  • Admitted Sovereign Debt                                             $2.445 trillion
  • Loans to the Nation                                                    $   114 billion
  • • Admitted Bank Guaranteed Debt                                   $   102 billion
    • Other Sovereign Guaranteed debt                                  $    90 billion
    • Sovereign Derivatives                                                  $   211 billion
    • Total National Debt                                                     $ 2.962 trillion
    
    
    ITALY’S EUROPEAN DEBT
    • Italy’s Liabilities at the ECB                                         $ 500 billion
    • Italy’s cost for the EU Budget                                       $  19.3 billion
    • Italy’s Liabilities for the Stabilization Funds                    $ 103.6 billion
    • Italy’s Liabilities for the Macro Fin Ass. Fund                   $ 137.9 billion
    • Italy’s Guarantee of the EIB Debt                                  $  71 billion
    • Italy’s Total European Debt                                          $ 831.8 billion
    • Italy’s National and European Debt                                $ 3.794trillion
    • Italy’s Official Debt to GDP Ratio                                  120.1%
    • Italy’s ACTUAL Debt to GDP Ratio                                 200%
    
    
    The Firewall Lie
    Whether some proposed firewall is $760 billion or $1.3 Trillion or $13 Trillion makes no difference as in zero, nada, nothing and null. It is an IOU, a promise to pay and it is not counted in any European sovereign debt numbers nor is it counted in the figures for the European Union’s debt. It will not stop Spain or Portugal or Italy from asking for or needing money. It will not stop contagion nor will it protect any nation from the calamities of another nation. If approved by the Finance Ministers it is not approved by the European Parliaments and even if approved; it accomplishes nothing besides onemore unaccounted for contingent liability that is nowhere to be found on anyone’s books. This whole discussion is a head fake, a deception and a ruse carefully plotted out for investors in one more attempt to mislead the entire world. If you wish to be a statistic in the Greater Fool Theory be my guest but I refuse to be apart of this unadulterated scam.

    
    

    “I woke, she fled and day brought back my night.”

                                                              -Edgar Allen Poe

    
    

    and Spain

    
    

    
    

    
    

    The Data

    Spain’s GDP                                                $1.295 trillion

    SPAIN’S NATIONAL DEBT

    Admitted Sovereign Debt                                 $732 billion
    Admitted Regional Debt                                   $183 billion
    Admitted Bank Guaranteed Debt                     $103 billion
    Admitted Other Sovereign Gtd. Debt               $ 72 billion
    Total National Debt                                         $1.090 trillion

    SPAIN’S EUROPEAN DEBT

    Spain’s Liabilities at the ECB                           $332 billion
    Spain’s Cost for the EU budget                       $ 20 billion
    Spain’s Liabilities for the Stabilization Funds   $125 billion
    Spain’s Liabilities for the Macro Fin. Ass. Fund $ 99 billion
    Spain’s Guarantee of the EIB debt                  $ 67 billion
    Spain’s Total European Debt                           $643 billion

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Spain’s National and European Debt                $1.733 trillion

    Spain’s OFFICAL debt to GDP Ratio                     68.5%

    Spain’s ACTUAL Debt to GDP Ratio                  133.8%

    “Yes, they have tricks up their sleeves and multiple methods of presentation and by multiple people. Yes, they give us an illusion with the appearance of truth but we are better than that and far smarter than they have calculated. I give you truth without illusion and regardless of their contentions; we can differentiate between reality and the fantasy that they weave for their own dark purposes.”

    
    

    and Germany....
    
    
    

    Germany

    German Gross Domestic Product (GDP):                                   $3.2 trillion

    Official German Sovereign Debt:                                               $2.618 trillion

    Percentage of Liabilities at the European Union:                          27%
    
    Percentage of Liabilities at the ECB                                           18.94%

    Germany’s Percentage of the ECB Debt ($4 trillion)                   $757.6 billion

    German annual cost for the EU budget                                     $46.36 billion

    German Guarantees for the Stabilization Funds                         $280.6 billion

    German Guarantees for the Macro Financial Assistance Fund     $211.14 billion

    German Target-2 Liabilities                                                     $656 billion

    German Guarantee for the EIB Debt                                       $157.29 billion

    Sovereign Guarantee for KFW                                                 $588 billion

    Total German Sovereign Debt & Guarantees                            $5.315 trillion

    Official debt to GDP Ratio                                                             81.8%

    Actual German Debt to GDP Ratio                                            139.8%

    So there you have it; place your bets.

    
    
    
    

    
    

    and Portugal ....
    
    
    

    From Mark Grant, author of "Out of the Box and onto Wall Street"

    The next country that could follow Greece out of Valhalla and down to meet Poseidon at Hades gates is Portugal. They trod the path once before but look likely to be headed out on a second journey. The country’s private and household debt are approximately 300% of the total GDP of Portugal and their economy is contracting; around 4.00% by some estimates. While the European Commission estimates a debt to GDP ratio of 111% for this year; the actual data tells another story. Further aggravating a future restructuring are the CDS contracts with a net position of $5.2 billion and a gross amount of $67.30 billion which is about twice the amount of the net exposure for Greece.

    PORTUGAL

    Total GDP                                               $208 billion
    Short Term Debt                                    $ 99 billion
    Long Term Debt                                     $ 96 billion
    Troika Loan                                            $111 billion
    Government Guaranteed Debt               $ 16 billion
    Government Guaranteed Bank Loans     $ 24 billion

    Debt to GDP Ratio                                 140%

    
    

     and Greece ...
    
    
    

    From Mark Grant, as a follow up The Eight Hundred Pound Greek Gorilla Enters The Room

    THE 800 POUND GREEK GORILLA (EXPOSED)

    When we have been given the data on Greek sovereign debt it appears we have been misled. I have added up now the ISDA debt issuances and I present them to you; all of these issuances are GUARANTEED by the Hellenic Republic; full faith and credit.

    GREEK SOVEREIGN GUARANTEED DEBT                                AMOUNT

    The New Economy Development Fund                              $139,000,000.00

    The Hellenic Railway                                                          $2,240,000,000.00   

    Structured Notes (Not counting Floating Rate Notes)         $20,683,000,000.00   

    Athens Urban    Transportation                                         $837,000,000.00

    Greek Bank Guaranteed Debt                                            $83,314,000,000.00

    TOTAL GREEK GUARANTEED. DEBT                                $107,213,000,000.00

    Here is $107 billion of OTHER debt; guaranteed debt that does not appear to be included anywhere in the official Greek sovereign debt figures. Contingent liabilities that are not counted any longer perhaps as the accepted manner of doing business now in Europe.Most of these issuances are governed under British law with “Default” clauses and “Negative Covenant” clauses. Greece defaults on €105 billion Euros and adds new debt, the IMF/EU loans, of 130 billion Euros and we are told that Greece is better off today than yesterday. What drivel! With the addition of the new IMF/EU loans of $172 billion and the revelation of the guaranteed debt at $107 billion Greece now has $279 billion of new and hidden debts.

    All of the meandering, all of the charades, all of the red nail polish applied will, in the end I forecast, not be able to hide the reality that the barking dog is a greasy Pig.

    A Dose of Reality:

    1. If Greece borrows money from the IMF/EU which means that they have more debt now than they did before they defaulted then they are worse off and not better off as they have a larger debt.
    2. If Greece has an additional $107 billion in debt that has not been accounted for because it is not in the name of the Hellenic Republic but is guaranteed by the Hellenic Republic then how are they going to pay off this debt?
    3. If the goal of this entire exercise was to reduce Greece’s debt to GDP ratio to 120% then how will a larger debt accomplish this as it is fiscally impossible.
    4. If the “real REAL goal” was to pay off the European banks so they wouldn’t default then Europe has accomplished this goal but at a terrible cost to Greece and to the Greek people.

    
    

    “The time has come, the Walrus said, to speak of many things. Of ships and shoes and sealing wax, of cabbages and kings. Of why the sea is boiling hot, and whether pigs have wings.”
                                             -Lewis Carol

    
    

    
    

Irish deposits still fleeing ... household charge sparks protest

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2012/0331/1224314162823.html

Cash on deposit in banks fell €14.6bn in February

In this section »

• Family's asset moves were 'reactive' to bank's steps
• State external asset position worsens
• Visa and MasterCard alert banks to major security breach
• AIB chief rules out debt forgiveness
• Big-picture banker plotting return to the black by 2014
• Merrion to cease its own drug developing

DAN O'BRIEN, Economics Editor and CHARLIE TAYLOR

ACROSS THE entire banking system, including institutions at the International Financial Services Centre (IFSC), cash on deposit fell by €14.6 billion month on month in February, according to new figures from the Central Bank. This was the largest decline since May of last year.

The total deposit base of Ireland-resident banks stood at €558 billion at the end of February. This is down by almost half from the peak in January 2009, when total deposits stood at €980 billion.

In the second half of 2010 the system suffered a huge outflow of funds, mainly caused by foreign depositors withdrawing cash. The rate of outflow slowed early last year, but the erosion of the deposit base has continued. Foreign withdrawals continue to account for most of the shrinking deposit base.

Irish private-sector depositors accounted for just over a quarter of the total deposit base in Ireland-resident banks.

At the end of February, Irish private deposits stood at €162 billion, unchanged on a month earlier. The stability of these deposits in February reflects a longer term pattern. Irish private sector depositors have reduced their deposits by just 13 per cent since their all-time high in August 2009.

Households are the largest source of deposits from the Irish private sector. Their total cash in banks stood at €91.2 billion at the end of February, a marginal decline on the previous month.

Companies of all kinds had just under €71 billion lodged in Irish-based banks at the end of last month, again broadly unchanged on a month earlier.

Borrowings by banks in Ireland on longer-term loans from the ECB fell by €7.9 billion in February, to €87 billion, due to a decline in IFSC banks’ recourse to refinancing operations.

The other side of the banks’ aggregate balance sheet shows that the credit crunch is continuing to affect households and businesses. Lending to households fell by €355 million during February following a decline of €691 million in January.

Developments in February were largely driven by a decline in loans for house purchase of €224 million, while loans for consumption and other purposes also decreased by €107 million and €23 million respectively. Loans to households were 4 per cent lower than in February of last year.

Lending for house purchases was 2.5 per cent lower on an annual basis in February, while lending for consumption and other purposes declined by 8.4 per cent over the same period.

and protest over the property tax

IRISH TIMES REPORTERS

Thousands of demonstrators protested against the household charge in Dublin today as the deadline for the €100 levy approached.

Gardaí said that some 5,000 people had taken part in the protest, which began at Parnell Square at 1pm and culminated in a rally near the Convention Centre, where Fine Gael is holding its annual Ard Fheis.

Protest organisers said afterwards that up to 10,000 people had participated.

A Garda spokesman said the march passed off peacefully.

However, a man mistaken for Minister for the Environment Phil Hogan was surrounded, jostled and pushed to the floor by a small group participating in the rally.

The man - who insisted "They've got the wrong guy. I'm not Phil Hogan" - was helped into a Garda car which was subsequently rocked by a small number of protestors before leaving the scene.

As of 5pm, some 735,000 properties had registered for the levy, including around 60,000 that have paid at council offices. Around 45 per cent of all households have now paid ahead of the deadline at midnight.

A further 12,677 properties have registered for waivers and a further 89,000 postal applications have yet to be processed.

Speaking at the Fine Gael Ardfheis, Taoiseach Enda Kenny said the rate of online registrations running at over 5,000 an hour. However, the final figure will almost certainly fall far short of the Government’s own projections.

Mr Kenny said today's protest was perfectly legitimate but he also pointed out that the household charge was now the law of the land.

He said the new tax was about the provision of services in every town and village in the country.

“I am heartened by the number that have registered online today,” he said.

Anecdotal evidence suggests the rate of registrations varies across the country, from 25 per cent in northern counties to 50 per cent in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown.

The State’s 34 city and county councils face having to make significant cuts in local services if revenues fall short.

Minister for Finance Michael Noonan told parliamentary colleagues this week that the budgetary allocation for local government had been made – taking account of the €160 million revenue projected from the new tax – and no further funds would be made available.

The Local Government Management Agency has been given responsibility for collecting the new tax and compiling the database of all liable households. Efforts to make householders compliant with the new charge will be the sole responsibility of the local authorities and the agency.

The fund will be allocated evenly among local authorities, taking account of population size, and will not reflect the level of uptake of the new charge in each area.

Agency chief executive Paul McSweeney said yesterday it would take some weeks to process all registrations. Once complete the agency would compile a full register, using a number of databases, including those of the ESB and Revenue; the second-home tax register and the register of private rented accommodation.

The database would allow non-registering households to be identified. The extent of access to those databases will need to be agreed by Data Commissioner Billy Hawkes.

Thousands protest over levy

Figure if may take until some time in September to get the bugs out of the pipeline and start running crude at the desired level - to get full effect on the US election and don't discount that , October looks like a possible date for the move as to Iran....

http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/03/28/203793.html

UAE plans leak tests for strategic oil pipeline in late April

Wednesday, 28 March 2012

The 1.5 million barrel per day pipeline should offer the UAE an alternative route to exporting by ship out of the Strait of Hormuz. (AFP)

inShare

By AMENA BAKR AND STANLEY CARVALHO
REUTERS DUBAI/ABU DHABI

The United Arab Emirates should know within weeks if its strategic oil pipeline for bypassing the Strait of Hormuz leaks after tests planned for late April, industry sources told Reuters.

The 1.5 million barrel per day (bpd) pipeline should offer the UAE an alternative route to exporting by ship out of the narrow strait which Iran has threatened to block as western pressure to limit its oil revenues has intensified.

The project already faces lengthy delays over a quality dispute with the Chinese company that built it and the UAE’s oil escape route could be blocked for much longer.

“The commissioning of the pipeline will not take place any time before December and there may be further delays if there are leaks during the water test which will take place by the last week of April,” said a UAE-based industry source directly involved in the project.

During the testing phase, water mixed with colored dye will be pumped into the 370-km (231-mile) Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline buried in the desert.

“Once it’s been checked for leaks and pressure, the pipeline will be dried and filled with nitrogen then about four months later the pipe can be filled with oil,” said another UAE engineering source.

The pipeline links the Habshan oilfields to the port of Fujairah - an increasingly important oil storage terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz on the Gulf of Oman.

Once any leak is found and fixed the commissioning phase can finally begin. This stage may require a small and temporary increase in oil production to keep UAE exports steady as the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s onshore unit ADCO pumps oil into the pipeline until it is full.

“The pipe will be filled with about one million barrels then will go up to 1.5 (million barrels) gradually,” the engineering source said.“ADCO now needs to come up with a plan to store oil from the current production for the commissioning phase,” he said.

The UAE’s current output is around 2.6 million bpd and has a production capacity of around 2.7 million bpd.

“So roughly ADNOC needs to store around 40,000 barrels for a month so it could be used for (commissioning) the pipeline,” the industry source close to the project said.

The oil flowing through the pipe from Abu Dhabi will be mainly exported by ship but a portion will be used by a refinery at Fujairah.
Other companies working on the project are the International Petroleum Investment Company, owned by the Abu Dhabi government, and China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation.

and recall this .....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/uss-enterprise-preapres-cross-suez-canal-days-away-anchor-arabian-ssea

And as a reminder, once CVN-65 is parked and on location, here are the windows of opportunity for Iran.

1001 Moonless Kinetic Nights: Presenting The Windows Of Opportunity For An Iranian Attack

Following last Friday's majority vote by the Israel Security Council authorizing Iranian "action" when required, answering the "if", the only open question remains "when." As it turns out, based on the following analysis by Rapidan Group, there are only 10 or so distinct 10 day New Moon windows for the remainder of 2012. If one removes the sandstorm prone months of April, July and September, there are 7 periods in which a military strike is realistic. Also CVN 65 is moving at a snail's pace and is just now approaching the Straits of Gibraltar.  Since any action will likely not take place unless 3 aircraft carriers are in the vicinity, and because the ICE yesterday institutedultra-short term trading spike curbs in crude, starting April 1, one can likely eliminate the immediately proximal March 17-27 window. Which leaves six. Our advice would be to buy up OTM calls in Brent in the days just ahead of the start of any such window, as any "surprise" attack will have a uplifting impact on all combustible assets, doubly so for levered ones.

From Rapidan Group

Timing Considerations

Based on press reports, officials see high odds of an attack sometime between 2Q12 and the end of the year, with most pointing to 2Q or 3Q.

If Israel elects to conduct a conventional military strike, the optimal conditions would be moonless and cloudless nights. “Operation Orchard,” Israel’s attack on Syria’s reactor at Al-Kibar on Sep 6, 2007, took place 5 days before the new moon. This suggests windows starting about 5 days before a new moon and ending five days after - see the table below. Low humidity is also ideal, but not required.

Attackers would want to avoid sandstorms, which have afflicted Iran in April, July, and September in recent years. Last year, a large sandstorm in mid-April hit 20 provinces, forcing the shutdown of schools and businesses. Sandstorms are visible and predictable, however, and would be taken into account by planners.

For non-kinetic options, climate is not a consideration to our knowledge. Presumably, they would be tried before kinetic ones and only after leaders were convinced Iran had not yet felt enough pain to compel it to freeze enrichment.