Sabtu, 31 Maret 2012

A compilation of recent articles from Mark Grant - In focus .....Italy , Spain , Portugal and Greece - looking behind the curtain at the ugly truths being hidden.....

Mark Grant Explains The Farce, The Hustle, And The Scam

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Mark Grant, author of Out of the Box and Onto Wall Street,
“All propaganda has to be popularand has to accommodate itself to the comprehension of the least intelligent ofthose whom it seeks to reach.”
                                                         -He that must not be named
When considering the financial condition of each and every country in the European Union there are certain facts that are left out and left out on purpose. It makes no difference if the methodology is right or wrong but what is not counted is every bit as important as what is counted. In my opinion, the structural deformity of the European Union is, in itself, one of the main reasons that any attempt at a fiscal or economic fix never seems to work. If the problem is not correctly identified then how can a solution for the problem be correctly conceived and then implemented and the answer is that it cannot. For each and every nation in Europe here is what is NOT counted as part of their sovereign debt or included in ANY debt to GDP ratios:
  • Contingent Liabilities
    • Derivatives
    • Sovereign Guaranteed Debt of any Corporation
    • Sovereign Guaranteed Bank Debt
    • Sovereign Guaranteed Regional or Local Debt
    • EU Liabilities that Accrue to each Nation
    • ECB Liabilities that Accrue to each Nation
    • Stabilization Funds Liabilities that Accrue to each Nation
    Consequently the difference betweenwhat we are told are the debts of a country and what are the actual debts of acountry is the difference between night and day, light and dark, fantasy andreality. The fact that we are told time and time again that the Italian debt toGDP ratio is 120.1% changes nothing. It is an inaccurate figure, a distortionof the truth, and because it is repeated and repeated and repeated in theheadlines does not make it so. The worse problem may be that with enough repetitionthat those that manufacture the propaganda begin to believe it themselves andthen act upon the nonsense that they have so judiciously concocted. 
    • Italian Official GDP                                                      $1.900trillion

    • Admitted Sovereign Debt                                             $2.445 trillion
    • Loans to the Nation                                                    $   114 billion
      • Admitted Bank Guaranteed Debt                                   $   102 billion
      • Other Sovereign Guaranteed debt                                  $    90 billion
      • Sovereign Derivatives                                                  $   211 billion
      • Total National Debt                                                     $ 2.962 trillion

      • Italy’s Liabilities at the ECB                                         $ 500 billion
      • Italy’s cost for the EU Budget                                       $  19.3 billion
      • Italy’s Liabilities for the Stabilization Funds                    $ 103.6 billion
      • Italy’s Liabilities for the Macro Fin Ass. Fund                   $ 137.9 billion
      • Italy’s Guarantee of the EIB Debt                                  $  71 billion
      • Italy’s Total European Debt                                          $ 831.8 billion
      • Italy’s National and European Debt                                $ 3.794trillion
      • Italy’s Official Debt to GDP Ratio                                  120.1%
      • Italy’s ACTUAL Debt to GDP Ratio                                 200%

      The Firewall Lie
      Whether some proposed firewall is $760 billion or $1.3 Trillion or $13 Trillion makes no difference as in zero, nada, nothing and null. It is an IOU, a promise to pay and it is not counted in any European sovereign debt numbers nor is it counted in the figures for the European Union’s debt. It will not stop Spain or Portugal or Italy from asking for or needing money. It will not stop contagion nor will it protect any nation from the calamities of another nation. If approved by the Finance Ministers it is not approved by the European Parliaments and even if approved; it accomplishes nothing besides onemore unaccounted for contingent liability that is nowhere to be found on anyone’s books. This whole discussion is a head fake, a deception and a ruse carefully plotted out for investors in one more attempt to mislead the entire world. If you wish to be a statistic in the Greater Fool Theory be my guest but I refuse to be apart of this unadulterated scam.

      “I woke, she fled and day brought back my night.”
                                                                -Edgar Allen Poe

      and Spain

      The Data
      Spain’s GDP                                                $1.295 trillion
      Admitted Sovereign Debt                                 $732 billion
      Admitted Regional Debt                                   $183 billion
      Admitted Bank Guaranteed Debt                     $103 billion
      Admitted Other Sovereign Gtd. Debt               $ 72 billion
      Total National Debt                                         $1.090 trillion
      Spain’s Liabilities at the ECB                           $332 billion
      Spain’s Cost for the EU budget                       $ 20 billion
      Spain’s Liabilities for the Stabilization Funds   $125 billion
      Spain’s Liabilities for the Macro Fin. Ass. Fund $ 99 billion
      Spain’s Guarantee of the EIB debt                  $ 67 billion
      Spain’s Total European Debt                           $643 billion
      Spain’s National and European Debt                $1.733 trillion
      Spain’s OFFICAL debt to GDP Ratio                     68.5%
      Spain’s ACTUAL Debt to GDP Ratio                  133.8%
      “Yes, they have tricks up their sleeves and multiple methods of presentation and by multiple people. Yes, they give us an illusion with the appearance of truth but we are better than that and far smarter than they have calculated. I give you truth without illusion and regardless of their contentions; we can differentiate between reality and the fantasy that they weave for their own dark purposes.”

      and Germany....

      German Gross Domestic Product (GDP):                                   $3.2 trillion
      Official German Sovereign Debt:                                               $2.618 trillion
      Percentage of Liabilities at the European Union:                          27%

      Percentage of Liabilities at the ECB                                           18.94%
      Germany’s Percentage of the ECB Debt ($4 trillion)                   $757.6 billion
      German annual cost for the EU budget                                     $46.36 billion
      German Guarantees for the Stabilization Funds                         $280.6 billion
      German Guarantees for the Macro Financial Assistance Fund     $211.14 billion
      German Target-2 Liabilities                                                     $656 billion
      German Guarantee for the EIB Debt                                       $157.29 billion
      Sovereign Guarantee for KFW                                                 $588 billion
      Total German Sovereign Debt & Guarantees                            $5.315 trillion
      Official debt to GDP Ratio                                                             81.8%
      Actual German Debt to GDP Ratio                                            139.8%
      So there you have it; place your bets.

      and Portugal ....

      From Mark Grant, author of "Out of the Box and onto Wall Street"
      The next country that could follow Greece out of Valhalla and down to meet Poseidon at Hades gates is Portugal. They trod the path once before but look likely to be headed out on a second journey. The country’s private and household debt are approximately 300% of the total GDP of Portugal and their economy is contracting; around 4.00% by some estimates. While the European Commission estimates a debt to GDP ratio of 111% for this year; the actual data tells another story. Further aggravating a future restructuring are the CDS contracts with a net position of $5.2 billion and a gross amount of $67.30 billion which is about twice the amount of the net exposure for Greece.
      Total GDP                                               $208 billion
      Short Term Debt                                    $ 99 billion
      Long Term Debt                                     $ 96 billion
      Troika Loan                                            $111 billion
      Government Guaranteed Debt               $ 16 billion
      Government Guaranteed Bank Loans     $ 24 billion
      Debt to GDP Ratio                                 140%

       and Greece ...

      When we have been given the data on Greek sovereign debt it appears we have been misled. I have added up now the ISDA debt issuances and I present them to you; all of these issuances are GUARANTEED by the Hellenic Republic; full faith and credit.
      GREEK SOVEREIGN GUARANTEED DEBT                                AMOUNT
      The New Economy Development Fund                              $139,000,000.00
      The Hellenic Railway                                                          $2,240,000,000.00   
      Structured Notes (Not counting Floating Rate Notes)         $20,683,000,000.00   
      Athens Urban    Transportation                                         $837,000,000.00
      Greek Bank Guaranteed Debt                                            $83,314,000,000.00
      TOTAL GREEK GUARANTEED. DEBT                                $107,213,000,000.00
      Here is $107 billion of OTHER debt; guaranteed debt that does not appear to be included anywhere in the official Greek sovereign debt figures. Contingent liabilities that are not counted any longer perhaps as the accepted manner of doing business now in Europe.Most of these issuances are governed under British law with “Default” clauses and “Negative Covenant” clauses. Greece defaults on €105 billion Euros and adds new debt, the IMF/EU loans, of 130 billion Euros and we are told that Greece is better off today than yesterday. What drivel! With the addition of the new IMF/EU loans of $172 billion and the revelation of the guaranteed debt at $107 billion Greece now has $279 billion of new and hidden debts.
      All of the meandering, all of the charades, all of the red nail polish applied will, in the end I forecast, not be able to hide the reality that the barking dog is a greasy Pig.
      A Dose of Reality:
      1. If Greece borrows money from the IMF/EU which means that they have more debt now than they did before they defaulted then they are worse off and not better off as they have a larger debt.
      2. If Greece has an additional $107 billion in debt that has not been accounted for because it is not in the name of the Hellenic Republic but is guaranteed by the Hellenic Republic then how are they going to pay off this debt?
      3. If the goal of this entire exercise was to reduce Greece’s debt to GDP ratio to 120% then how will a larger debt accomplish this as it is fiscally impossible.
      4. If the “real REAL goal” was to pay off the European banks so they wouldn’t default then Europe has accomplished this goal but at a terrible cost to Greece and to the Greek people.

      “The time has come, the Walrus said, to speak of many things. Of ships and shoes and sealing wax, of cabbages and kings. Of why the sea is boiling hot, and whether pigs have wings.”
                                               -Lewis Carol

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