Sabtu, 14 April 2012

Regarding Greece - my read of the 13 and 26 week bills maturing between March 23 and before June 20th is higher than 5.2 billion ( my count is 5.2 billion euros each for both bills ) euros. But the point is where is Greece , which is broke , supposed to get the money for April and May ?

Brett writes ...
Hello Mish

I have spared you having to read the attached 195 page sleeping pill and I have discovered a major problem.

The first disbursement to Greece was on March 20. Disbursements are paid quarterly and no sooner, which effectively means that June 20 is the earliest next disbursement due date. Greece was originally supposed to receive 74 billion in the first tranche,(Page 56 on the document), it received 7.5 billion. Someone needed to put the decimal point one place to the right.

We know Greece is insolvent and it raided University accounts held at the Bank of Greece to effect the March bond swap. We know the bond swap offer (450 million Euro) for issue XS0147393861 was rejected and is payable on May 15 (6 Weeks to go). Somehow it has to pay this before the next tranche.

Of the 7.4 billion it received in the first tranche a Greek government official stated that "Greece would use this money to pay 4.66 billion euros to the European Central Bank and other eurozone national central banks for the capital amount of a three-year bond that expired yesterday".This leaves 2.74 billion over 3 months to survive with. Even if you believe the 1% deficit for 2012 forecast (complete nonsense on page 99) Greece is in arrears 1.25 billion per month. This consumes entirely the remaining distributed money from the EU & IMF. Plus there is 5.2 billion Euros of Treasury bills due in April and May.

Greece 26-Week T-Bills

Greece 13-Week T-Bills

Below is my favorite line from the document.

However, the disbursements to Greece by the EFSF and the IMF will still be conditional on compliance with conditionality.

Why even bother?

as I wondered who might the Greek government plunder next  ( they already ripped off Universities and pensions like the Seaman - one reason for their recent strike ) , I recalled Greece has about 100 tons of gold and that this gold is subject to seizure.... that's good for at least 5 billion right there - so they need to plunder about 3 billion more from somewhere

“Ms. Katseli, an economist who was labor minister in the government of George Papandreou until she left in a cabinet reshuffle last June, was also upset that Greece’s lenders will have the right to seize the gold reserves in the Bank of Greece under the terms of the new deal.”
The Reuters Global Gold Forum confirms that in the small print of the Greek “bailout” is a provision for the creditors to seize Greek national gold reserves. Reuters correspondents in Athens have not got confirmation that this is the case so they are, as ever, working hard to pin that down.
Greece owns just some 100 tonnes of gold. According to IMF data, for some reason over the last few months Greece has bought and sold the odd 1,000 ounce lot of its gold bullion reserves. A Reuter’s correspondent notes that “these amounts are so tiny that it could well be a rounding issue, rather than holdings really rising or falling.”
While many market participants would expect that Greece’s gold reserves would be on the table in the debt agreement, it is the somewhat covert and untransparent way that this is being done that is of concern to Greeks and to people who believe in the rule of law.

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